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Cloud Call Center Community Featured Article

[August 10, 2006]

Daily Mail, London, Ruth Sunderland column

(Daily Mail (London) (KRT) Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge) Aug. 10--The Bank of England's latest thoughts on the outlook for inflation do not make cheery reading for borrowers hoping last week's rise in interest rates was a one-off.

Mervyn King, the governor, justified the decision -- an unexpected one to most commentators -- with a fairly hawkish inflation report.

Most economists are interpreting it as an indication that further increases, albeit probably modest, are on the cards.

Inflation is predicted to rise faster than previously expected to around 2.7pc by the end of this year before dwindling back towards its target of 2pc.

The main culprits are rising energy costs and, as many parents will be painfully aware, rising university fees.

The governor made great play of the higher than usual uncertainty surrounding inflation.

He suggested there was a 50-50 chance he would have to write to Chancellor Gordon Brown in the next six months to explain why inflation has moved more than 1pc away from its target.

The chances of a letter within the next two years are "odds on."

The bank expects economic growth to be slightly stronger, with a rebound in consumer spending and the housing market stabilising.

It believes the balance of the economy will shift, with a revival in business investment and increased demand for our exports taking over from the consumer as the prop for growth.

Investment, however, may be held back by the needs of companies to address their out- of-control pensions liabilities.

It is also not clear whether the Bank has taken enough account of the appreciation of sterling in its reckonings, particularly since the pound has risen sharply since last week's hike, making British goods more expensive overseas. The latest trade figures have done little to allay fears.

The report suggests the profile for US growth is "reasonably robust" and is similarly sanguine on the outlook for global trade.

The Fed, which this week pressed the pause button on its own series of rate rises, does not seem quite so sure.

King suggested, a little disingenuously, that people should not have been surprised by the rate hike last week.

Perhaps he is playing his "Maradona" game again, of getting the markets to make his life easier, as further increases have already been priced in.

King's silence spoke volumes when he was asked whether we would be in a better position now if he had not been outvoted last August, when rates were cut against his will. He has had his revenge, but considering the overstretched balance sheets of many British households, we can only hope he is right.

HARVEY CHALLENGE: Is there life after the Pru for Aviva? Richard Harvey, the company's chief executive, points to the insurer's high growth numbers to claim that there is.

Aviva's operating profit is up 27pc and worldwide sales of long-term savings products increased 25pc, figures which are pretty impressive given the size of the business.

Harvey not surprisingly wants to consign his failed attempt to merge with the Prudential to the memory bank.

That might change if the Pru, as rumoured, sells its UK arm to the likes of Resolution Life, leaving the US and Asian operations as a separate business.

It is a hypothetical issue at the moment. But if the Pru did go down that route, the overseas arm could be tempting for Aviva.

For the time being Harvey is keen to reassure the market that he is not seeking any fresh capital for deals, after raising money to secure AmerUS, his smaller consolation prize.

Harvey hopes to use AmerUS as a springboard into the baby-boomer market in the States.

Still, his present position is quite a step down from his grand plan to use the Pru deal to leverage himself into the big league of global insurers.

Here in the UK, some of the growth is attributable to the "A Day" pensions reforms, but the suspicions are that much of this is money being churned around by existing savers.

Evidence is thin on the ground that non-savers are being persuaded to set up their own pension funds, perhaps because the insurers are still battling public mistrust over past mis-selling scandals and disappointing endowment returns.

Aviva's general insurance side did well, though it benefited from clement weather and there seems little scope for further cost-paring.

The results are very respectable, but its share price at 718p is still a long way below its 1998 peak of 1250p.

If he were in the media industry like ITV's Charles Allen, then Harvey might have suffered harsher retribution over this, and the Pru episode. As it is, he has got off quite lightly.

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